Early Expert Systems: Where Are They Now?
Authors: Gill, T.
Journal: MIS Quarterly (1987)
DOI: 10.2307/249711
Expert systems (ES) were among the earliest branches of artificial intelligence (Al) to be commercialized. But how successful have they actually been? Many well-publicized applications have proven to be pure hype, numerous Al vendors have failed or been completely reorganized, major companies have reduced or eliminated their commitment to expert systems, and even Wall Street has become disillusioned—a predicted $4 billion market proving to be smaller by an order of magnitude. Yet, in spite of these setbacks, there are many companies who remain enthusiastic proponents of the technology and continue to develop important ES applications. This paper explores how the first wave of commercial expert systems, built during the early and mid-1980s, fared over time. An important subset of these systems, identified in a catalog of commercial applications compiled in 1987, was located through a telephone survey, and detailed information on each system was gathered. The data collected show that most of these systems fell into disuse or were abandoned during a five-year period from 1987 to 1992, while about a third continued to thrive. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data further s…