The Illusory Diffusion of Innovation: An Examination of Assimilation Gaps
Authors: Fichman, Robert G.; Kemerer, Chris F.
Journal: Information Systems Research (1999)
<jats:p> Innovation researchers have known for sometime that a new information technology may be widely acquired, but then only sparsely deployed among acquiring firms. When this happens, the observed pattern of cumulative adoptions will vary depending on which event in the assimilation process (i.e., acquisition or deployment) is treated as the adoption event. Instead of mirroring one another, a widening gap—termed here an assimilation gap—will exist between the cumulative adoption curves associated with the alternatively conceived adoption events. When a pronounced assimilation gap exists, the common practice of using cumulative purchases or acquisitions as the basis for diffusion modeling can present an illusory picture of the diffusion process—leading to potentially erroneous judgments about the robustness of the diffusion process already observed, and of the technology's future prospects. Researchers may draw inappropriate theoretical inferences about the forces driving diffusion. Practitioners may commit to a technology based on a belief that pervasive adoption is inevitable, when it is not. </jats:p><jats:p> This study introduces the assimilation gap concept, and develops a…